Markets

Oil: Beyond the Barrel - And Over the Cliff

Fri, 26 Nov 2010 09:34:53 -0500

As the price of oil climbs through $85 a barrel, it reminds me of the explanations flying around a little over two years ago as oil went to this level for the first time. "It's all the funds chasing the hot commodity - the only game in town" was the refrain. It's all a bubble and we will have stable oil at $35 soon - that's what Steve Forbes and many others said. But now, as oil goes through $85, it's not the only game in town. In fact, it's been the dog underperforming just about everything. No desperate performance chasing mania is driving the price of oil today as we threaten $100 again. Could those peak oil nuts be right? Could the Great Recession be camouflaging a real supply peaking process?

There is an interesting article out just yesterday over at The Post Carbon Institu

Huge Chinese Demand to Drive Uranium Export Boom

Fri, 26 Nov 2010 09:34:51 -0500

World Market Pulse submits:

China, the world's second largest economy, is bracing itself for a huge import of uranium in order to fulfill a part of its ever increasing energy requirements as the country plans to add to its current capacity of 11Gigawatts (at the end of last year) to reach a target of 70 Gigawatts of nuclear capacity by the year 2020. Although officials with China's leading nuclear companies have expressed confidence that the country's domestic stocks of uranium are good enough to fuel its burgeoning fleet of reactors for decades to come, independent analysts and nuclear experts feel that China would definitely need to import uranium and a good chunk at that in order to satisfy the country's ever growing energy needs.

Meanwhile, a recent Thomson Reuters report quoted Cao Shudong, director of planning and development at China National Nuclear Corp (CNNC), as admittin

Beer as an Emerging Markets Story

Fri, 26 Nov 2010 09:33:58 -0500

Emerging Money submits:

As global brewers consolidate, the fact is that the line between “domestic” and “imported” brands has gotten blurry. For example, Budweiser is now effectively a Brazilian beer.

Anheuser-Busch Inbev (BUD) has been a Brazilian company since 2008 and dominates Latin markets like Argentina, with about 75% of the total sales, and of course Brazil.

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India Markets Friday Wrap-Up: Persistent Selling Hits Indices

Fri, 26 Nov 2010 09:31:57 -0500

Equitymaster submits:

Indian indices languished in the red for a larger part of the trading session today. Although, there were some attempts made in the afternoon session to push above the dotted line, these proved futile and the markets closed well into the red in the final trading hour.

While the BSE Sensex closed lower by around 182 points (down 1%), the NSE Nifty lost around 48 points (down 1%). Selling was more pronounced in midcap and smallcap stocks as the BSE Midcap and the BSE Smallcap racked losses of 4% and 3% respectively. Losses were largely seen in consumer durables, metals, auto and FMCG stocks.

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Chinese Inflation and European Defaults

Fri, 26 Nov 2010 09:31:28 -0500

Michael Pettis submits:

Part 1. Will Europe face defaults?

Its official – Spain and Portugal will need to be bailed out soon. How do I know? In one of my favorite TV shows, Yes Minister, the all-knowing civil servant Sir Humphrey explains to cabinet minister Jim Hacker that you can never be certain that something will happen until the government denies it.

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Statoil Sells 40% Stake in Thai Oil Sands Project for $2.28 Billion

Thu, 25 Nov 2010 09:30:22 -0500

Zacks.com submits:

Norway based integrated energy company Statoil ASA (STO) announced the sale of its 40% interest in its oil sands project of Kai Kos Dehseh to PTT Exploration and Production (“PTTEP”) of Thailand. Statoil will receive a total consideration of $2.28 billion for the sale.

With the ownership of the remaining 60% interest, Statoil will continue to function as the Managing Partner and operator of the project. The deal is expected to be sealed in the first quarter 2011, with the effective date, January 1, 2011 and is subject to customary regulatory approvals.

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More Crude Oil, But Less Than Expected

Thu, 25 Nov 2010 09:30:20 -0500

Hard Assets Investor submits:

By Brad Zigler

Data released from the U.S. Energy Department this morning put another feather in the cap of the industry-supported American Petroleum Institute. Sort of. The API estimated a 5.2-million-barrel build in domestic crude oil stocks while Wall Street analysts expected a 1.8-million- to 2.1-million-barrel drawdown.

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Mawson Resources: Popping Uranium Stock

Thu, 25 Nov 2010 09:30:18 -0500

As various uranium stocks begin to pop, Mawson Resources Limited (MWSNF.PK) joined in the move as its stock price increased 100% in a week. Taking a quick look at the chart we can see that a sudden increase in the volume accompanied the stock price hitting the roof, doubling in a week. The technical indicators suggest that this stock is extremely overbought so go gently if and when you do decide to acquire it. For disclosure purposes we do not own it, however, on a day like this we wish we did own it.

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Uranium Continues to Soar

Thu, 25 Nov 2010 09:30:17 -0500

Jeff Pierce submits:

I really like this sector based on the ability of it’s leaders to breakout, or the patterns that suggest a breakout is coming. Volume supports the breakouts as well. Click on charts to enlarge.

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Gulfport Energy: Why I Got This Call Dead Wrong

Thu, 25 Nov 2010 09:30:15 -0500

Toby Shute submits:

Last fall, in an extensive six-part series, I explored the ins and outs of oil producer Gulfport Energy (Nasdaq: GPOR). In the course of those articles, I attempted to show other investors how I analyze an unfamiliar stock. In the final installment, I took a stab at a valuation and determined that the company -- then trading for less than $9 a share -- was fairly valued.

Since that time, Gulfport has more than doubled in price. Whoops. Let's try to figure out how I bungled this one so badly.

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Is the African Renaissance for Real?

Thu, 25 Nov 2010 09:29:53 -0500

Carnegie Endowment submits:

Africa’s improved growth performance in recent years has been widely noted. GDP growth in the decade before the Great Recession was double that of the previous decade, though it started from a low base. Despite this gain, however, the advance in per-capita incomes in Africa continues to lag behind that of other developing regions.

Africa’s growth acceleration was associated with a number of favorable factors, notably the large improvement in Africa’s terms of trade, a measure of the difference between the growth of export and import prices. Some of these factors may turn out to be temporary, but others reflect improved policies, especially in macroeconomic management and education. Together with reduced external debt (partly the result of debt forgiveness), these improvements appear to have helped Africa avoid recession during the global crisis in 2009.

iMFdirect submits:

By Mark Plant, Deputy Director - African Department

My IMF colleagues and I have spent the past week or so traveling through Africa for the launch of our October 2010 Regional Economic Outlook on sub-Saharan Africa. Both the outlook for Africa, and reactions to it, have been very positive.

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Emerging Europe: Lessons From the Boom / Bust Cycle

Thu, 25 Nov 2010 09:29:22 -0500

iMFdirect submits:

By Ajai Chopra, Deputy Director - European Dept.

Almost unnoticed, amidst the difficulties in western Europe, the other half of the continent has begun to recover from the deepest slump in its post-transition period. The emerging economies in central and eastern Europe will grow by 3¾ percent this year and next—a relief after the 6 percent decline in 2009.

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Russia, The Sick BRIC

Thu, 25 Nov 2010 09:29:21 -0500

Craig Pirrong submits:

Last Friday the WSJ ran an interesting article comparing the ruble to other commodity currencies. Whereas the Australian and Canadian Dollar, South African Rand, and the Norwegian Kroner have rallied smartly against the dollar since June, with double digit percentage gains, the ruble is down about 6 percent. This is symptomatic of a sluggish economy. There is other information consistent with this interpretation:

Russia does not believe that the crisis is over – whatever the government spin might say. And while the official line is that the country is open for business and investment is not only welcome but safe and secure, both incomes a

'Surprisingly Good' Outlook for Central, Eastern European Economies - Danske Markets

Thu, 25 Nov 2010 09:29:16 -0500

CFA Institute submits:

By Ed Bace, CFA

Lars Christensen, chief analyst and head of emerging markets research at Danske Markets, a unit of Danske Bank, offered attendees at this week's Third Annual CFA Institute European Investment Conference a ray of sunlight that stood in contrast to the somewhat dreary Danish weather. The outlook for Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies, he said, was "surprisingly good."

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