How to Make A Hot Holiday Toy

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Take that $50 Barbie doll with a digital camera and place it alongside a $9 16-pack of cute creature-shaped pencil toppers and you'll get a quick lesson in the anatomy of a hot holiday toy.

With Toys R Us opening 600 pop-up shops this season, Target and Wal-Mart engaging in price warfare and the NPD Group finding that 34% of holiday shoppers will buy toys this year -- up from 32% last year, but still conservative compared to the 42% the National Retail Federation believes will be trolling for toys this season -- there's a lot riding on this holiday's hottest toys. But with the biggest toys as disparate as Mattel's Barbie Video Girl and Blip Toys' bubble-encased penciltop Squinkies, how do retailers and parents even determine what's a hot toy and what's going to end up on the post-holiday bargain heap?

"If there were a magic formula, everyone would be using it," Reyne Rice, toy trends expert for the Toy Industry Association. "There

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